What now for Theresa May’s plans to create new grammar schools, now that the pro-selection Democratic Unionist Party is likely to help her stay in power?
As the results were coming through in the early hours, former Conservative chancellor George Osborne told ITV that, when it came to grammar schools, “you can forget all that”.
That was before Theresa May announced she would form a government with the support of the DUP, which, last year, signalled its support for her plan to expand academic selection.
But despite the backing of their 10 MPs, the parliamentary arithmetic of pushing new grammar school legislation through the Commons still looks daunting.
Perhaps surprisingly, the problem does not lie in the fact the Tories lost ground in England, where MPs have a veto on laws – such as this – that only effect England.
Despite their losses, the Tories still have 65 more MPs in England than the combined opposition. It would require a rebellion of more than 30 Tory backbenchers to defeat any grammar school plans under the ‘English Votes for English Laws’ procedure.
House rules
The problem for grammar school supporters is that any new law would also need the support of the whole House of Commons.
Across the UK as a whole, even with the support of the DUP, it would only take a handful of Tory rebels to deprive Theresa May of her majority. Equally, the DUP could withhold their support unless they secured concessions elsewhere.
So, arithmetically, there is a parliamentary route to lift the ban on new grammar schools, but it is very narrow.
Politically, it would be even harder.
The policy is closely tied to Theresa May and her joint chief of staff, Nick Timothy. The election result leaves them much-weakened figures, even if they remain in Downing Street for any length of time, and strengthened those, including education secretary Justine Greening, who are rumoured to be less enthusiastic about new grammar schools.
At the best of times, governments in hung parliaments do not want to push controversial policies unless they have to because it leaves them hostage to every individual MP with a personal obsession or burning local issue.
And this is not the best of times. Brexit, already the all-consuming issue of its age, has just become a whole lot harder, so there will be little time or inclination for a simultaneous fight on grammar schools.
Speaking on the steps of Downing Street today, Ms May talked about putting “fairness and opportunity” at the heart of her government’s work. It is the sort of language she has used before to support the creation of new grammar schools.
But the parliamentary arithmetic and wider political considerations make it unlikely the ban will be lifted any time soon.
[Source:- tes]
